• Login
    View Item 
    •   Repository Home
    • Theses and Dissertations
    • Master's - Theses
    • School of Pure and Applied Sciences
    • View Item
    •   Repository Home
    • Theses and Dissertations
    • Master's - Theses
    • School of Pure and Applied Sciences
    • View Item
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Mathematical modelling of the impacts of screening and non-clinical strategies in combating Covid 19 transmission in Kenya

    Thumbnail
    View/Open
    Abstract (8.965Kb)
    Date
    2023
    Author
    Akwalu, Ezra Kimathi
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Abstract
    COVID-19 is a serious problem in Kenya. It has put an unprecedented burden on the worldwide economy and public health. The rapid spread of COVID-19 has been driven predominantly by aerosol transmissions. We modeled the impacts of screening and non-clinical strategies like use of facemask, hand washing and social distancing on COVID-19 transmission in Kenya. The general objective of the study was to develop and analyze a deterministic mathematical model to show the effects of screening and non-clinical strategies in combating the spread of the COVID-19 in Kenya. The specific objectives of this study were to formulate mathematical models on the spread of coronavirus disease 2019, carry out the model analysis to determine the positivity, boundedness, equilibrium points, local stability, global stabilities, sensitivity and bifurcation analysis of the model and finally use numerical simulations to determine the effects of screening and non- clinical strategies on the spread of COVID-19 in Kenya. The Mathematical model was *based on SIRS epidemiological classical model. In developing the model, the population was divided into six human compartments; Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Isolated in the hospital, Isolated at home, and Recovered. The basic reproduction number was determined using Next Generation Method. The model was analyzed through the determination of the model's steady states. The stabilities of steady states were analyzed based on reproduction number using: signs of Jacobi Matrix evaluated at steady state, Lyapunov Criteria, Centre Manifold theorem, Metzler matrix, and Routh-Hurwitz. Numerical simulations were carried out using MATLAB's inbuilt ODE solver based on Runge Kutta Method. Sensitivity analysis of the model parameters was carried out using partial differentiation of the reproduction number and also using Normalized sensitivity analysis. From this analysis, findings showed that adherence to containment measures had great negative impact on the reproduction number. When a single strategy was simulated, it was found to reduce the number of daily reported cases but the impact was little compared to when the measures were * combined. It was found through simulation that adherence to the COVID-19 containment measures by the population would reduce the reproduction number to below 1 hence containing the pademic. No single strategy has the effect of containing the pandemic alone. The findings of this study show that the combined strategies like screening, hand washing, facemask and social distancing must be used collectively to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Kenya. We recommended strict adherence to containment measures.
    URI
    http://repository.must.ac.ke/handle/123456789/1087
    Collections
    • School of Pure and Applied Sciences [33]

    MUST Repository copyright © 2002-2016  MUST Repository
    Contact Us | Send Feedback
    Theme by 
    MUST Repository
     

     

    Browse

    All of the RepositoryCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjectsThis CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjects

    My Account

    LoginRegister

    MUST Repository copyright © 2002-2016  MUST Repository
    Contact Us | Send Feedback
    Theme by 
    MUST Repository