Modeling the Temporal Effects of External Trade Components of Kenya on the Balance of Trade (BOT)
Abstract
The project aimed to assess the export and imports variables that significantly determine the balance of trade for Kenya over a period of time. In addition it sought to model the balance of trade on context of exports and imports. The methodology used was Principal Components Analysis and time series Analysis. The study through Principal Components Analysis, led to determining the major exports and imports variables.Time series analysis on the other hand comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristic of the data and time series forecasting. Deficit in Kenya balance of trade could lead to high inflation rate which leads to a general rise in the prices of services and goods.